+++
date = "2022-02-08T06:56:52+00:00"
publishdate = "2023-12-29T07:08:55+00:00"
title = "Web Browsers"
slug = "web-browsers"
author = "Thedro"
tags = ["web"]
type = "posts"
summary =  "Web browsers, search engines, and the open source technologies underpinning them have more or less bootstrapped what could be called a pseudo home shopping network."
draft =  ""
syntax =  "1"
toc =  "1"
updated =  "2022-02-09"
+++

![Circular Logo](/images/web-browsers.png "
  [Google's Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome) Browser Logo."
)

[Web browsers,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_browser) search engines, and
the [open source](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_source) technologies
underpinning them have more or less bootstrapped what could be called a pseudo
[home shopping network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSN) (`HSN`). In many
respects, the dominant language, behaviour, and environment on
[The Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet) mirrors that of a tightly
controlled, but free-to-view corporate marketplace where almost everything
looks, feels, and perhaps _is_ an advertisement (`ad`).

[Laplace's Demon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace%27s_demon) is an
interesting idea that if there is enough information about the position and
momentum of the properties in a system, then perhaps you could predict its
future state. In my first article for this year --- let's don the hat of that
demon and {{< sidenote mark="explore" set="left" >}} This article is not as long
as it could be but expanding into the specifics verges onto the territory of a
novelette. {{< /sidenote >}} a simplified
{{< sidenote mark="prediction" set="right" >}} Some predictions are based on
anecdotal observations of average users browsing the web. {{< /sidenote >}} of
what the [Web Browser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_browser) and more
generally the [World Wide Web](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wide_Web)
(www) could look like in the next two decades (`2042`).

To come up with plausible predictions, my technological enthusiasm and bias for
[free and open source software](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_and_open-source_software)
(`FOSS`) has to be suspended to build up my best arguments for the combined
incentives of the stakeholders who affect the direction of the web. These
stakeholders are governments, companies, technologists, and users. This will
effectively be an argument against myself, but it should be delightfully fun.

I'm not a market expert nor business analyst but just a random developer that
every so often works on websites for web browsers. Let's take a look at my
predictions. It is currently the year `2022`.

## The URL Bar is Replaced by the Everything Search Bar

The
[Uniform Resource Locator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Resource_Identifier)
(`URL`) will be replaced by _search_ and its visibility left as a browser
implementation detail. The blur between `URL` and _search term_ will lead to
users dropping the distinction between a `URL` bar and a search bar. The primary
mode of web navigation and discovery becomes search and the first web browser to
get away with it wins big.

![Chrome browser search interface.](/images/web-browsers-search-first-omnibar.png "
 What a _search first_ omnibar could look like."
)

The frictionless transition and {{< sidenote mark="learned" set="left" >}}
Trends also suggest that
[users increasingly don't know the difference between files and folders](https://www.theverge.com/22684730/students-file-folder-directory-structure-education-gen-z)
on a computer. Perhaps search results or tags will become the defacto
organizational scheme for users. {{< /sidenote >}} user behavior will compel
other browsers to reluctantly do the same under the pressure for shared
{{< sidenote mark="legibility." set="right" >}} In the article,
[The End of Web Design,](https://www.nngroup.com/articles/end-of-web-design/)
the [Nielsen Norman Group](https://www.nngroup.com/) discovered that since users
spend more time on other sites, they prefer that your site work similarly.
{{< /sidenote >}} The significance of the
[Uniform Resource Identifier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Resource_Identifier)
(`URI`) scheme such as `http://` or `ftp://` will follow suit and disappear completely
on the user facing side. Reduced parsing complexity will open up the path
towards a full focus on
[natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing)
(`NLP`) as more protocol supports are
{{< sidenote mark="deprecated" set="right" >}} `FTP` support removed in
[ Chrome ](https://chromestatus.com/feature/6246151319715840) and
[ Firefox ](https://blog.mozilla.org/security/2021/07/20/stopping-ftp-support-in-firefox-90/)
{{< /sidenote >}} due to security concerns and no signal consensus.

[Google's omnibox,](https://developer.chrome.com/docs/extensions/reference/omnibox/)
or "everything box" becomes the standard and search first "omnibars" become a
ubiquitous feature in all mainstream browsers as a user friendly
{{< sidenote mark="terminal" set="left" >}}
[Microsoft's Copilot](https://copilot.github.com/#faqs) is an indicator of the
current strength and potential of `NLP`. {{< /sidenote >}} prompt using search
engine `NLP` to navigate the web.

```shell
# install firefox and chromium now
$ pacman -S firefox chromium
```

```shell
# find and open the 11th edition of ecmascript
$ mupdf "$(locate --all ecmascript 11 | head --lines=1)"
```

```text
"take me to amazon" -> https://www.amazon.com/
```

## Bookmarks and History Replaced by the Integrated Search Engine

The web browser's bookmarks and history interface will be revamped into a thin
client integrated search engine, and an offline client replica with lightly
cached bookmarks, history and search data. Current iterations of the "new tab
page" trend will motivate this new design. The history and bookmarks page will
look exactly like a
[search engine results page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_engine_results_page)
(`SERP`).

Startups will offer fully centralized bookmark and history storage replication
to {{< sidenote mark="their" set="left" >}} Users of
[Google's My Activity](https://support.google.com/accounts/answer/7028918)
already provide detailed history data based on search term patterns, and
bookmarks based on recency. {{< /sidenote >}} servers direct from the browser.
This will be a feature that users want as history management and bookmarking
become frictionless and obsolete.

Users in aggregate rarely care about the way their personal data is used and bar
legal restraints --- bookmarks and history will be a new data collection source
to improve search results if it isn't already. Monetizing bookmarks and history
data will be normalized, and companies will use this data to further perfect key
ranking algorithms for advertisers and develop new products.

Web browser based startups will _need_ to have both a search engine and a
browser to compete in the new space of the integrated search engine. The search
engine by itself becomes obsolete, since the web browser or rather the
[operating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system) (`OS`) will
do the heavy lifting of discovery.

## The Web Browser as an Internet Operating System and Specification

The [Internet operating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_OS)
(Internet `OS`) will make its grand resurgence with rivaling feature parity to
entrenched operating systems.
[Google's Chromebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromebook) and
[Chrome `OS`](https://www.google.com/chromebook/chrome-os/) will become the most
important predictive {{< sidenote mark="heuristic" set="right" >}} Boot to Gecko
also known as [FirefoxOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firefox_OS) was a
another predictor and is long forgotten. {{< /sidenote >}} for the Internet
`OS`. This is a device that runs
[Google's Chrome Browser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome) as the
operating system. Competitors in this space will use the open source
[Chromium `OS`](https://www.chromium.org/chromium-os/) to bootstrap their own
operating system derivatives.

[Web Assembly](https://webassembly.org/) (`WASM`) will become the wild card that
fills the eventual application vacuum as the Internet `OS` paradigm goes
mainstream. `WASM` will pave the way for complete
{{< sidenote mark="functionality" set="left" >}}
[`USB`](https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/API/USB) (Universal
Serial Bus) applications are already being
[ported to Google Chrome and Chromium based browser derivatives.](https://web.dev/porting-libusb-to-webusb/)
{{< /sidenote >}} by exposing more programming languages to the browser.

[Google's Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome) and
[Chromium](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromium_(web_browser)>) based
derivatives will knock all other browsers off the market except
[Apple's Safari](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safari_(web_browser)>), leaving
Safari as their only contender. Chrome and Chromium
[application programming interfaces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (`APIs`)
will become the additional specification that web applications passively adopt.

## Deprioritization of Open Source Software and Ascendancy of Open Source Hardware

Since most open source software (`OSS`) in the web space is "obsolete" and has
bootstrapped many big players to a "good enough" position, the next destination
is to model the [Apple ecosystem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_ecosystem)
and that requires bootstrapping a hardware stack with the help of
[open source hardware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_hardware)
(`OSH`).

The elusive
[technological walled garden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed_platform)
requires stack supremacy --- which involves tight control of the technological
stack down from the hardware and up to the software. The race towards stack
supremacy will cause open source hardware to ascend from obscurity into the
light and mature `OSH` startups will be bought with capital.

## Specialized Hardware, Eternal Defaults, and Challenging Legacy Carrier Features

Companies that reach stack supremacy will iterate on new devices and software
quickly without obstruction to create substantially better user communication
experiences. This sets the stage for "eternal defaults" and pseudo carrier like
status. Traditional carrier networks will begin to see a significant usage
decline in legacy communication schemes like
[short message service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS) (`SMS`) as the
Internet backbone subsumes its function more reliably.

Big players in the market will be the equivalent of
[wireless carriers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_network_operator) or
[Internet Service Providers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_service_provider)
(`ISP`). In the environment of specialized hardware and eternal defaults, users
would have to buy another device to have a completely different Internet
experience. Installing, removing, or bolting on software will be nigh impossible
and hard to change defaults will be everything in these markets.

## Deprecation of the Developer Tools and Transition to Developer Programs

Companies that reach {{< sidenote mark="walled" set="right" >}} Apple's walled
garden ecosystem indicates that consistent user experiences require tight and
powerful controls on application delivery. The
[Apple Developer Program](https://developer.apple.com/programs/) enforces tight
developer control. {{< /sidenote >}} garden status will phase out their specific
browser developer tools to further tighten iteration speed with web application
developers by introducing developer programs. Security concerns will also place
into question the viability of exposing developer tools to all users and will be
disabled by default. As more web applications
{{< sidenote mark="expose" set="left" >}} Possible
[legal action for US journalist](https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/31/22861188/missouri-governor-mike-parson-hack-website-source-code)
who used developer tools to report publicly exposed sensitive data.
{{< /sidenote >}} sensitive data in plain sight, pressure will mount from
stakeholders to resolve security issues.

Initially developer programs will be free to get many developers on board.
Implementation fragmentation will be removed by laying down strict guidelines on
web application development within the Internet `OS` ecosystem. The average
user's knowledge on basic aspects of the legacy web will be effectively
non--existent at this point.

## Property Stewardship above Ownership and Co-ownership

[Software as a service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_as_a_service)
(`SaaS`) and
[Infrastructure as a service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure_as_a_service)
(`IaaS`) are lucrative business models in the software and hardware space and
will have even greater significance. The complexity of specialized hardware
combined with increasing software {{< sidenote mark="complexity" set="right" >}}
Complexity as a barrier to entry. {{< /sidenote >}} results in users preferring
that companies be stewards of their data and property. The process of self
installing and setting up software becomes obsolete.

The subscription model of `SaaS` and `IaaS` will extend to almost all software
and into the hardware space with phones, laptops, and tablets. Schools,
governments, and other major institutions will switch over to renting software
and hardware indefinitely. The maintenance and repair of rented hardware and
software will be relegated to approved and authorized companies. The software
industry will begin to formalize and standardize key operations into
professional licences.

## Defragmentation Markets: Buying Interoperability and Integration

[Open standards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_standard) don't make for
easy business models --- pockets of incompatible fragmentation do. The lucrative
[unbundling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unbundling) effect will give rise to
defragmentation markets and
[product bundling.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Product_bundling) The
{{< sidenote mark="open" set="left" >}} "Open" is a word that holds different
meanings to different people. In fact,
[ the definition scope is so wide ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_standard#Specific_definitions_of_an_open_standard)
that its not easy to qualify. In this context open will just mean interoperable.
{{< /sidenote >}} standard's interoperable by design approach fades away as a
complete user experience on the web is achieved by buying interoperability and
integration. The majority of content on the web will be generated in silos that
do not communicate with each other unless through partnerships or "product
bundling".

If incompatible fragmentation rests in few players, bigger players will buy
interoperability directly in partnerships or integration deals with an Internet
`OS`. If fragmentation has numerous players, the biggest Internet `OS` players
will facilitate users being able to buy and bundle services directly in deals
with smaller players. Installing multiple applications that have similar
functionality and siloed
[network effects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect) will be tough on
users causing product interoperability bundling to become the
{{< sidenote mark="defining" set="right" >}}
[Restream](https://web.archive.org/web/20210323022034/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restream),
a cloud multi-streaming service is a predictor of the rising trend of
integration and defragmentation markets. {{< /sidenote >}} competitive feature
for the Internet `OS`.

For example, product interoperability bundling for chat applications would mean
that users of one chat application could communicate with users of another
application.

- **Chat:** Facebook Messenger, Discord, Slack, Microsoft Teams, Skype,
  WhatsApp, Snapchat, Telegram, Signal, Viber, WeChat, Line, FaceTime, Google
  Chat

[Vertical search engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_search) will be
reduced to `APIs` that the omnibar consumes. Search bars on websites and web
applications will disappear to avoid user confusion and developer programs will
ensure tight integration. Capital will determine interoperability in this
market, and Internet operating systems will have integration deals for prominent
vertical search engines on major web applications.

{{< image source="/images/web-browsers-omnibar-vertical-search.png" title="Chrome browser search interface." >}}
Site specific search is available to the omnibar powered by contextual
suggestions. {{< /image >}}

Modern protocols are also up for defragmentation. The Internet `OS` gains
competitive advantage by amalgamating disparate protocols by either
{{< sidenote mark="integrating" set="right" >}}
[Brave](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brave_(web_browser)>), a Chromium based
web browser has already implemented [`IPFS`](https://brave.com/ipfs-support/) and
[`TOR` support](https://brave.com/new-onion-service/). {{< /sidenote >}} them
seamlessly or indirectly with web applications. The more alternative protocols
the more potential for user capturing power.

- **Protocols:**
  [`IPFS`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterPlanetary_File_System) (Inter
  Planetary File System), [Tor](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(network)>)
  (The Onion Router), [`I2P`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I2P) (Invisible
  Internet Project), [ZeroNet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZeroNet),
  [BitTorrent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitTorrent),
  [Matrix](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_(protocol)>),
  [`IRC`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Relay_Chat) (Internet Relay
  Chat)

## Unblockable Advertisements, Cryptocurrency and Interaction Fees

Advertisements (ads) will be baked into the experience of the Internet in a way
it cannot be easily or _freely_ disabled. Native ad--blocking will become an
integral part of this achievement with death by a thousand white--lists. The
increasing popularity of ad--blocking will incentivize a
{{< sidenote mark="full" set="left" >}}
[Microsoft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft) has been
[adding ads to the start menu](https://www.theverge.com/2016/5/16/11682164/microsoft-windows-10-promoted-apps-start-menu-anniversary-update)
since Windows version `10`. {{< /sidenote >}} shift to unblockable
advertisements. Stakeholders, mainly users, supported by downstream
advertisement revenue will {{< sidenote mark="welcome" set="right" >}} There
have been attempts to
[reclassify ad--blocking as copyright infringement](https://torrentfreak.com/adblocking-does-not-constitute-copyright-infringement-court-rules-220118/).
{{< /sidenote >}} Internet operating systems with unblockable ads.

Direct cryptocurrency payments will become a short term alternative to the
advertisement model, but its fragmented and controversial influence will carry
it into a merged union with established financial institutions and ad markets as
it meets the requirements of
[too big to fail](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_big_to_fail) (`TBTF`)
doctrine.

The centralized union of crypto markets with established financial markets will
allow for seamless integration of Internet interaction fees.
[Micropayments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micropayment) will become the norm
for many interactions you can currently still do for free, such as clicking
links, copying text, and downloading images.

More businesses will converge around advertising, and there will be few
alternative revenue models. Since all users operate within the frame of an ad
market, those who wish to avoid advertisements will pay subscription fees to
_partially_ or completely {{< sidenote mark="remove" set="left" >}} The ad--free
subscription model. One excellent predictor is
[YouTube Premium.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube_Premium)
{{< /sidenote >}} unblockable advertisements. The ad--free subscription model
will become extremely popular and lucrative as the complexity and awareness of
free ad--blocking increases.

## Deprecating Registration Forms: Universal Password and Data Management

Internet operating systems will have feature complete password, data, and role
management functionality. Users will have to enter their personal data on their
systems only once to enable one click registration to any service. This is one
step up from the [single sign-on](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_sign-on)
(_sign in with_) buttons that are ubiquitous across the web --- to a new one
click registration and permission based `API` model.

One click registration will obsolete completing registration forms in web
applications, and pave the way for product bundling integrations. Personal data
will be stored on remote servers while the Internet `OS` locally stores
transitory and key metadata.
[Security tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_token) will become
ubiquitous and modern devices will be authenticated with physical digital keys.

## Market Share Dominance, New Mobile Operating Systems, and Global Carrier Wars

Market dominance will hinge particularly on the tablet and phone mobile markets.
Companies in this space will have their own Internet operating system for mobile
devices. Chrome and Chromium's specification will be the base, but dominant
companies will eventually diverge and create their own proprietary `APIs` with
their specific devices.

Internet `OS` companies with dominant market share influence and multi--national
cloud infrastructure will become "global carriers" and manage communications
services in more jurisdictions on the Internet backbone, eventually competing
more directly with legacy carrier networks.

```yaml
# Hypothetical Market Share

"Google/ChromeOS"           : 55
"Microsoft/EdgeOS"          : 14
"Apple/Safari"              : 12
"* Facebook/MetaOS"         : 9
"Brave Browser/BraveOS"     : 5
"* Amazon Silk/FireOS"      : 1
"* SpaceX/StarlinkOS"       : 1
"DuckDuckGo Browser/DuckOS" : 1
"Firefox Browser/FirefoxOS" : 1
"Opera Browser/OperaOS"     : 1
```

[Microsoft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft) and
[Brave Software](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brave_(web_browser)>) will have
high upward swing potential. [Facebook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook)
(now known as [Meta Platforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_Platforms)),
[Amazon](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)>), and
[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) will enter the mobile phone
Internet `OS` market by onboarding a new user base.

## Conclusion and Alternative Disruptions

That was a wild ride, and while my hope is that _none_ of the above happens ---
_anything_ is possible because money can align the most distant stars. Let's
conclude with a brief look at possible disruptions that can easily nullify the
plausibility of everything written before.

Out of a {{< sidenote mark="plurality" set="left" >}} Global government
regulation is an obvious disruption, but the increasing power matrix and
potential of technology markets to fully bootstrap the much desired
[mass surveillance state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_surveillance)
suggests that this will not be the case. {{< /sidenote >}} of disruptions, one
has caught my eye, and it's the advertisement model itself that supplants most
businesses on the Internet. The encroaching influence and ubiquity of ads
increasingly suggest that it's a grand house of cards in the sand.

> Let he that is not a shill among you cast the first stone.

Search engines are increasingly looking more like ad brochures and streaming
services, like home shopping networks. One might as well
{{< sidenote mark="finish" set="right" >}} If
[big tech's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Tech) main products are
optimizing towards an interactive
[online marketing brochure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brochure#Marketing_brochure),
then that means the bar for disruption may become very low in the future.
{{< /sidenote >}} the job. The already massive and increasing ad volume push
could mean that there is an opening for a new type of fully
[classified advertising](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classified_advertising)
product over the current hybrid
[personalized ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personalized_marketing) and
[search](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_advertising) advertising
offerings.

Personally, it's difficult to find convincing information on the efficacy of ads
from the advertiser's point of view in aggregate. Do advertisers have clear
beneficial signals from personalized advertisements? It's not easy to shake the
feeling that it only takes a single company to create an online product that
{{< sidenote mark="implies" set="left" >}} The bar appears low? All it takes is
demonstrating that the current advertisement price points are too high.
{{< /sidenote >}} that advertisers can achieve the same value for less money and
this party ends quickly. Here's a few questions that would be interesting to see
an answer to from a company with a product.

> Is there a way to guarantee a product was bought because of an ad?

> What would cause people to pay to watch ads or read classifieds for product
> leads?

> Can we search for, read, and watch by category every advertisement in one
> place?

> What would a strictly advertisement only global streaming service or proper
> classifieds search engine look like?

> Why do people watch
> [Super Bowl ads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_commercials)?

The technology at our disposal, particularly
{{< sidenote mark="decentralized" set="right" >}} Decentralization in its
strongest sense. Depending on who you talk to, centralization, decentralization,
and federation all mean the exact same thing, as hypothetically each can have
the potential to further incentivize centralization. {{< /sidenote >}}
solutions, should hypothetically allow advertisers to reach more people
transparently with better metrics, for a vastly lower price point than it is to
advertise today --- or at least that's what I'd like to believe. This appears
easy, but perhaps there is a combined incentive by stakeholders to avoid
lowering the price of advertising.