+++
date = "2021-07-30T17:19:25+00:00"
publishdate = "2023-12-29T07:08:55+00:00"
title = "The Fate of Empires"
slug = "the-fate-of-empires"
author = "Thedro"
tags = ["abstract","history"]
type = "abstracts"
summary =  ""
draft =  ""
syntax =  ""
toc =  ""
updated =  "2021-07-31"
+++

_The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival_ is a
{{< sidenote mark="short" set="left" >}} The read time is about thirty minutes.
{{< /sidenote >}} essay written by
[John Bagot Glubb,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bagot_Glubb) better known
as Glubb {{< sidenote mark="Pasha," set="right" >}} Commander of the
[Arab Legion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Legion),
`1939`--`1956`. {{< /sidenote >}} born in `1897`. Pasha observes and
formulates a set of patterns that empires experience until their eventual
collapse. Pasha's framework consists of six stages that are characteristic of
superpowers and follows the idea of cyclical paradigms in the historical record.
Pasha {{< sidenote mark="estimates" set="right" >}} Possibly derived from the
obscure ancient refrain: "*even to the tenth generation*" --- an expression
meaning a long time. {{< /sidenote >}} that on average empires last `250` years
or `10` generations.

1. The Age of Pioneers (The Outburst)
2. The Age of Conquests
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)

Pasha's formulation of collapse is inherently controversial, but he understands
this keenly. Those living in or around a "collapsing" empire could never truly
observe it, at least not {{< sidenote mark="directly" set="left" >}} Indirect
observation:
[second order logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-order_logic) and
[lateral thinking](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lateral_thinking).
{{< /sidenote >}} --- after all no citizen easily perceives or admits that the
empire is failing or has failed. The human spirit is adaptive, and embraces many
harsh and diverse conditions with exceptional ease. It is not a "_gradually,
then suddenly_" --- but a perpetuity of gradual decline. A collapse is realized
centuries later by future hopefuls far removed, or in Pasha's grim case,
barbarians. Pasha's sense of collapse implies a steady and progressive softening
and weakening of an empire, nation, or power.

> Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a
> gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline. Human affairs are
> subject to many chances, and it is not to be expected that they could be
> calculated with mathematical accuracy.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 2{{< /footer >}}

Pasha {{< sidenote mark="writes" set="right" >}} Quoting the German Philosopher
[Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Wilhelm_Friedrich_Hegel).
{{< /sidenote >}} that "_the only thing we learn from history, is that men never
learn from history_". His central proposition on collapse stems from the
questionable way empires pass down history. Pasha considered an accurate
generational transfer of history a crucial guard against collapse. Powers that
retained fairly {{< sidenote mark="objective" set="left" >}} The word
"objective" has become a loaded word, but in this context it refers to
information that shies away from favoring any side --- a narration of events.
{{< /sidenote >}} histories would win out in the long run as a matter of
historical record in Pasha's view.

> Our people are represented as patriotic heroes, their enemies as grasping
> imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words, our national histories are
> propaganda, not well-balanced investigations.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 1{{< /footer >}}

Further, in the wider historical sense, Pasha argues that for world history to
be useful --- it must be an accurate and collective history of the human race.

> Any useful lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole
> flow of human development, not by the selection of short periods here and
> there in one country or another.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 1{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Pioneers

The age of pioneers is marked by a sense of freedom and boldness characteristic
of new encounters with the unknown. Pioneers are not limited to conventions or
traditions. The leaders of the pioneers are creative, set the stage, and are
free to improvise unique solutions and compromises. The old virtues ---
diligence, courage, honour, and loyalty rule the day.

> Uninhibited by textbooks or book learning, action is their solution to every
> problem.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 5{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Conquest

The age of conquest is a period of military action and land acquisition. Pasha
marks this period by the simmering desire for commerce and wealth by the public.
The military may be proud and honourable, but conquest is driven mainly by a
merchant class who usher in the age of commerce.

> During the military period, glory and honour were the principal objects of
> ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are but empty words, which add nothing
> to the bank balance.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 8{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Commerce

Pasha marks the age of commerce by the ease at which goods are transported. In
this period, trade is simplified and the ease of doing business maximized. The
empire controls all trade routes, resulting in little to no interdependence in
the domains of commerce and travel.

> The means of transport were slower, but, when a great empire was in control,
> commerce was freed from the innumerable shackles imposed upon it today by
> passports, import permits, customs, boycotts and political interference.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 7{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Affluence

According to Pasha's analysis, the age of affluence is identified by a subtle
distinction in the value and utility of education. In an empire's high noon,
knowledge is viewed only as a path to riches, with its practical and virtuous
foundations taking an indefinite back seat. Pasha intuits that as with the Arab
decline, there is a gradual loss of knowledge that would have bolstered the
empire's institutions.

> The Arab moralist, Ghazali (1058-1111), complains in these very same words of
> the lowering of objectives in the declining Arab world of his time. Students,
> he says, no longer attend college to acquire learning and virtue, but to
> obtain those qualifications which will enable them to grow rich.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 9{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Intellect

The age of intellect is marked by the common idea that education will solve all
the problems in the world. It is this idea that underscores what Pasha terms
"_the inadequacy of intellect_". Pasha's banal observation is that problem
solving and cohesion among people depend simply on the principles that encourage
self--sacrifice, loyalty, courage, and trust. Intellect is a product of these
old virtues, and not the primary ingredient.

> In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on
> the loyalty and self--sacrifice of the citizens. The impression that the
> situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human
> self--dedication, can only lead to collapse.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 15{{< /footer >}}

## Age of Decadence

The age of decadence is signaled by increased pessimism and cynicism among
citizens as the empire marches towards midnight. Civil dissensions predominantly
in matters of politics become more tribal and pronounced. The pervasive
pessimism and cynicism is assuaged through various means and frivolity becomes
the order of the day. Pasha writes "_Frivolity is the frequent companion of
pessimism. Let us eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die_". In `10th`
century Baghdad, contemporary historians lamented the decadence of the
{{< sidenote mark="period," set="right" >}} See: The Arab Decline, The Fate of
Empires, Page 15 {{< /sidenote >}} which was signified by who the citizens
considered their heroes.

> The heroes of declining nations are always the same---the athlete, the singer
> or the actor.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 14{{< /footer >}}

## Conclusion

Pasha's framework of collapsing empires may not apply in today's global era, but
it's still a good introduction to peculiar patterns in history. The world today
is a mighty complex machine held together by the
[Bretton Woods System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) and
[`MAD` doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction)
(Mutually Assured Destruction).

> The present writer is exploring the facts, not trying to prove anything.
> {{< footer >}}The Fate of Empires, Page 2{{< /footer >}}

Pasha does not try to prove anything when it comes to the rise and fall of
empires, but for the sake of conclusion, let's take his `10th` generation
proposal, and apply it to the greatest power in the world today: _The United
States of America_. If superpowers inevitably break down around the `10th`
generation, then in Pasha's framework The United States would be superseded by
another great power by the year `2026` at the very least.